When most people thought that the earth was flat, it was more likely that it was. It actually wasn't, but it was more likely that it was at the time. Any caveman who thought the earth was round wasn't thinking rationally. The fact that he was later proven right is nothing more than a fluke...
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The beginning of the post doesn't even make sense - the world either is, or is not, flat. It does not have some quantum uncertainty that makes it indeterminate until we peek at it.
Aside from that, from the perspective of a caveman, there's not a whole lot of evidence either way, and not much reason to care either way either. The other planets hadn't been discovered, so saying the sun went around the earth would have made just as much sense as the earth rotating. The only evidence that would have made it clear is if you traveled in a straight line around the globe and wound up back at your starting point, or the fact that the top of an object is visible over the horizon before the bottom, not simultaneously (though that's only conclusive in a flat space like the ocean).
He has a valid point even if his argument is clumsy: a caveman's world view was too small to know that the Earth is round; from his view point it's flat. Therefore, if he had the audacity to think differently, that the world might actually be round, he would be consider irrational by others around him whose world views are just as small.
Of course, he then discredits himself by his last statement of fail. It wasn't a fluke; it was inevitable.
“When most people thought that the earth was flat, it was more likely that it was.”
Nope. Likelihood is not based on popularity.
Likelihood is based on the better arguments. And ‘looks like it to me’ isn’t much of an argument.
“It actually wasn't, but it was more likely that it was at the time.”
No. Not at all.
There was a time when most of Europe was convinced that the tomato was poisonous. Popular opinion didn’t change the lethality of the fruit one way or another.
“ Any caveman who thought the earth was round wasn't thinking rationally.”
You cannot assess his rationality by the prevailing view.
The first person to gather evidence and try to figure it out was rational.
“The fact that he was later proven right is nothing more than a fluke...”
Depends. Did he think it was round for rational reasons or did he just like apples more than pancakes?
Confused?
So were we! You can find all of this, and more, on Fundies Say the Darndest Things!
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