This doctor in India had 2 family members with serious side effects from the COVID shots. If such effects are rare, say 1 per 100K people, and there are 10 people in her family, we expect to see 1e-4 events, but observed 2. This can happen by chance with probability 5e-9.
Someone is lying to you, I don't think it is Dr. Katoch:image 3:03 PM · May 22, 2024 · 13K Views87 Reposts 6 Quotes 305 Likes 12 Bookmarks
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To list the obvious forever-failures:post hoc ergo propter hoc . She does not tell us anything about the distance between vaccination and incidents, nor the incidents against each other - remember, it’s been three and a half years since the vaccine in question was rolled out -, nor the time between the attacks. Furthermore, both suffered different crises.
Someone is lying to you
Yes, you are.
Also, the ages of the people involved could be a factor. Her sister could be within the age group most at-risk for a heart attack, and her father is certainly within the age group most likely to have a stroke!
If a thing has appeared to happen, you shouldn’t use the prior probability of it happening in order to determine how likely it is that it really happened. If someone is dead, but it’s unlikely for them to have died, that doesn’t make it unlikely that they are currently dead.
“If such effects are rare, say 1 per 100K people, and there are 10 people in her family, we expect to see 1e-4 events, but observed 2.”
All three of my kids are boys. No one, not the math-inclined in our family, or the doctors, nurses of maternity and pediatrics were ever amazed at that result.
Odds evaluate outcomes, they do not dictate them.
Could it be that said family members share a common background which could dictate their susceptibility to certain adverse effects? Like a genetic predisposition to certain auto-immune reactions?
Confused?
So were we! You can find all of this, and more, on Fundies Say the Darndest Things!
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