Things seem so utterly grim but I still try to see the silver lining.
It’s up to the Afghan people on a local level to fight the Taliban. Many are doing this right now. They have been setting up militias and doing all they can.
What the USA and NATO never could comprehend is that the Afghans are a very different tribal society. It’s not so much a regular country with a regular government but more a Somalia-type land where there are different semi-autonomous tribal groups. These groups are often in conflict.
The official Afghani Govt. is seen as something of a puppet state that is rife with division and corruption. Many of the troops on the lower rungs don’t get the best food or supplies.
It is a very nationalist society, very tribal, very much one tied to a deep Islamic faith (whenever the more moderate folks or the super fundie-conservative).
Many feel that the official government is no better than the Taliban as far as security and stability are concerned. The official govt. may tout better human rights and progress but be elitist, corrupt, inept, disorganized and creating anarchy. The Taliban is a hardcore bunch of brutish theocratic hardliners who hate human rights but they somehow provide security, stability and the meeting of basic needs.
If the Afghan people want the Taliban gone, they will fight on a local level, where every tribal group can depend on each other with each tribe, where they can have unity, something the official government with it’s corruption, lack of unity or cohesion can’t.
The Tajiks will join forces with other Tajiks. The Hazara with join forces with other Hazara, etc. There is where there will be unity. Each tribal group and territory will defend their own if they really want to be free from the Taliban.
One of the factors in why the Afghan military failed is because they’re associated with a very alien foreign government that is out of touch with the Afghan people, religiosity, culture, etc. The USA is alien and seen as imperialistic. The Afghans want self-determination and a leadership they can relate to. Many do want progress and human rights but on their terms and at a level they are comfortable with. They’re not an ultra-modern, super-liberal people and even the most feminist among them would seem a bit staid by our standards.
Another odd factor… The Taliban hate DAESH and DAESH are even worse than the Taliban and the Taliban have been a bit of an asset in fighting DAESH. An evil fighting an even worse evil.
There will still be support for the Afghans but it will be indirect and consist of stuff like diplomacy, sanctions, relief efforts.
It will likely get worse before it gets better but it will hopefully get a little bit better in the long term. It’s up to the Afghan people.
I read that a large chunk of Afghanistan’s demographics are young and most of them do want some progress. If they are the future then the appeal of the Taliban will shrink over time.
Finally, much of the Taliban of today is Pakistan’s fault. They’re funding and training them. A great way to curb the Taliban’s antics is to work on or with Pakistan. It is also vital to provide a way for Afghans to emigrate and escape the Taliban.
Finally, much of the Taliban’s ideas require “buy-in”, if a particular family is fine with female autonomy then the Taliban can’t force them to think otherwise. The Taliban may restrict stuff outside the home but they can’t just barge in and force a loving husband to beat his wife or daughter.